The End of the USA’s Longest War?

By Seth Cullen Scott April 2021

Throughout history, the United States has partaken in many long, brutal wars but none as long as the war in Afghanistan. The United States’ influence in the region originally began during the Soviet invasion in 1979. Shortly after the initial invasion, the CIA began funding operation ‘Cyclone’, sending literal tons of weaponry, money and training to Mujahideen forces. The operation finally ended in 1989 with the withdrawal of Soviet forces but cost the U.S taxpayers over three billion dollars. On September 11, 2001, the world changed with the fall of the world trade centre and a little terrorist organization called ‘Al Qaeda’, became world famous overnight for the unspeakable acts that they committed. The outcome of this? A twenty-year war. 

You may have heard on the news about the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, and I can’t help but think about the consequences of this withdrawal and of the future of what might happen to this beautiful region that over thirty-eight million people call home. 

Peace summits have been taking place between the U.S. and Taliban leaders over the past year trying to negotiate a way out of the nation. The Taliban have agreed to have peace talks with the current Kabul government about a ceasefire and that Afghan territory will never be used again for terrorist activity. As it stands, one of the biggest stipulations in place is that the US Government has agreed to remove all troops from inside Afghanistan by May 1st, 2021, but ever since the peace talks started taking place, violence has escalated throughout the entire country, with targeted car bombings killing many press workers and journalists in particular.

Western statistics currently have estimated that around 54% of Afghanistan’s territory is currently controlled by the Taliban, but locals in Afghanistan have been saying it’s closer to 60 - 75%. With the Taliban controlling that much of the region, is it possible for the Kabul government to function and work out a peace deal that the Taliban will agree with? 

The current Afghan army has had some humiliating losses against the Taliban recently and usually only gains ground when backed by US air support. With NATO and the USA pulling out of the region, how will the Afghan army be able to stop a Taliban offensive if they want to control the government in its entirety? 

All of this leads up to the current news, the Trump Administration guaranteed the Taliban they would remove all troops inside of Afghanistan by May 1st, 2021, a day that has recently passed, however, the Biden Administration in an albeit strategic popularity move has decided to change that date to September 11, 2021, exactly 20 years after the 911 attacks. tho a great PR move, it does break the current peace deal with the Taliban and may have some hefty consequences.

Since that announcement, the Taliban representatives have refused any further peace talks, a big part of the peace deal was the agreement to keep Afghanistan’s current US-backed Kabul government and the Taliban working together on a true peace deal that could lead the country to peace. Will Biden's failure to follow through on his end of the Taliban Agreement Put that in jeopardy?

With all of that said would the Taliban have held up their end of the deal? Will they? or will Afghanistan once again fall into a Taliban-controlled government, Only time will tell.

These are some extremely uncertain times inside Afghanistan and with May 1st having recently passed we may see another swell of violence throughout the nation soon in retaliation to the United States’ late withdrawal from the country. Over 3500 coalition troops have been killed in Afghanistan since the start of the conflict in 2001 including 2,355 Americans, these numbers seem stark when compared to the civilian costs of the war in Afghanistan with estimates sitting around 71,000 civilians being killed in the conflict since it started in 2001.